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Drivers of improved PM 2.5 air quality in China from 2013 to 2017

Qiang Zhang, Yixuan Zheng, Dan Tong, Min Shao, Shuxiao Wang, Yuanhang Zhang, Xiangde Xu, Wang Jinnan, Hong He, Wenqing Liu, Yihui Ding, Yu Lei, Junhua Li, Zifa Wang, Xiaoye Zhang, Yuesi Wang, Jing Cheng, Yang Liu, Qinren Shi, Liu Yan, Guannan Geng, Chaopeng Hong, Meng Li, Fei Liu, Bo Zheng, Junji Cao, Aijun Ding, Jian Gang Gao, Qingyan Fu, Juntao Huo, Baoxian Liu, Zirui Liu, Fumo Yang, Kebin He, Jiming Hao

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 2019 · 2,291 citationsOpen access

doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1907956116Free full text

Abstract

From 2013 to 2017, with the implementation of the toughest-ever clean air policy in China, significant declines in fine particle (PM 2.5 ) concentrations occurred nationwide. Here we estimate the drivers of the improved PM 2.5 air quality and the associated health benefits in China from 2013 to 2017 based on a measure-specific integrated evaluation approach, which combines a bottom-up emission inventory, a chemical transport model, and epidemiological exposure-response functions. The estimated national population–weighted annual mean PM 2.5 concentrations decreased from 61.8 (95%CI: 53.3–70.0) to 42.0 µg/m 3 (95% CI: 35.7–48.6) in 5 y, with dominant contributions from anthropogenic emission abatements. Although interannual meteorological variations could significantly alter PM 2.5 concentrations, the corresponding effects on the 5-y trends were relatively small. The measure-by-measure evaluation indicated that strengthening industrial emission standards (power plants and emission-intensive industrial sectors), upgrades on industrial boilers, phasing out outdated industrial capacities, and promoting clean fuels in the residential sector were major effective measures in reducing PM 2.5 pollution and health burdens. These measures were estimated to contribute to 6.6- (95% CI: 5.9–7.1), 4.4- (95% CI: 3.8–4.9), 2.8- (95% CI: 2.5–3.0), and 2.2- (95% CI: 2.0–2.5) µg/m 3 declines in the national PM 2.5 concentration in 2017, respectively, and further reduced PM 2.5 -attributable excess deaths by 0.37 million (95% CI: 0.35–0.39), or 92% of the total avoided deaths. Our study confirms the effectiveness of China’s recent clean air actions, and the measure-by-measure evaluation provides insights into future clean air policy making in China and in other developing and polluting countries.

Cite this paper

Zhang, Q., Zheng, Y., Tong, D., Shao, M., Wang, S., Zhang, Y., Xu, X., Jinnan, W., He, H., Liu, W., Ding, Y., Lei, Y., Li, J., Wang, Z., Zhang, X., Wang, Y., Cheng, J., Liu, Y., Shi, Qinren, … Hao, J. (2019). Drivers of improved PM 2.5 air quality in china from 2013 to 2017. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(49), 24463–24469. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1907956116

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